| abstract: |
FRESHER brings together ten research groups, including leaders in the management of large European Foresight projects and highly experienced health policy modelers, in an interdisciplinary team engaged in FoResight and Modelling for European Health policy and Regulation. The overall project objective is the representation of alternative futures where the detection of emerging health scenarios will be used to test future policies to effectively tackle the burden of non communicable diseases (NCDs).
The project will produce quantitative estimates of the future global burden of NCDs in the EU and its impact on health care expenditures and delivery, population well-being, health and socio-economic inequalities, and potential changes in these impacts according to alternative health and non-health policy options.
The added value of FRESHER lies in the fact that these estimates:
- will not only be based on extrapolation of past health trends but also on foresight techniques (mapping of risk factors, horizon scanning and identification of key drivers for change, scenarios building) giving credit to the interdependencies of structural long-term trends in demography, gender relations, technological, economic, environmental, and societal factors at 2050.
- will be produced through the development of an empirically-based micro-simulation model (starting from the Chronic Disease Policy Model of OECD), allowing to quantify the current and future health and economic impacts of NCDs and testing “what if” policy options according to alternative foresight scenarios, as well as potential new policies and policy combinations.
FRESHER heavily relies on an interactive process with key stakeholders, at all stages of the project, in elaborating the framework, and giving inputs for the qualitative foresight scenarios and the quantitative micro-simulation model, and in deriving recommendations for future policies affecting population health and well-being.
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